I would also look at the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) that year and the quality of them. Late in the cycle the riskiest names would come to market as the public couldn’t wait to get into the next “new thing,” anticipating riches in just the first day of trading. Sound a little familiar? Barron’s believes the IPO market will be bigger still in 2021. Probably. According to Renaissance Capital, Barron’s reports, the average IPO returned 75% — the best performance since the late 1990s.
I would also check on the number of business/finance books published that year and what the financial advisers (FAs) thought. Back in 2000, my teacher and mentor Ralph Acampora published his “Fourth Mega Market” book, which was supposed to carry us through 2011. The thinking was good but the timing was off. Perhaps we are in a Fifth Mega Market now. The February/March decline