US wheat carryover forecast unchanged | 2021-02-10

WASHINGTON — In its Feb. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the US Department of Agriculture made mostly minor, off-setting, by-class changes to wheat exports, imports, and food use. As a result, the all-wheat 2021 carryover projection for 2021 was unchanged from the January report.

The carryover of US wheat on June 1, 2021, was forecast at 836 million bus, unchanged from the January estimate and down 192 million bus, or 19%, from 1,028 million bus in 2019-20.

Domestic all-wheat supply and demand forecasts were left unchanged from January, including beginning stocks at 1,028 million bus, production at 1,826 million bus, and imports at 120 million bus, for a total supply of 2,974 million bus.

Forecasts for food, seed, and feed and residual use of all-wheat also were unchanged from January at 965 million, 63 million and 125 million bus, respectively, for a total domestic use of 1,153 million bus compared with 1,123 million bus in 2019-20.

US wheat exports in 2020-21 were projected unchanged from January at 985 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 2%, from 965 million bus in 2020.

 The USDA made mostly minor adjustments to its projections for domestic hard red winter, hard red spring, soft red winter, white and durum wheat classes. The class changes ultimately offset each other.

In comments accompanying the latest supply-demand forecasts, the USDA said the hard red winter wheat export projection was reduced based on “a continued slow pace,” whereas hard red spring wheat and white wheat exports were raised “based on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments, particularly to China.”

For hard red winter wheat, the USDA projected a 28-million-bu increase in ending stocks based on a 3-million-bu decline in domestic use and a 25-million-bu decline in forecast exports.

The USDA projected a 21-million-bu decrease in hard red spring wheat ending stocks based on 3-million-bu reduction in total supply, a 15-million-bu increase in exports, and a 3-million-bu increase in domestic use.

The USDA projected a 10-million-bu decrease in white wheat ending stocks on a like increase in exports.

The USDA projected a 1-million-bu increase in soft red winter wheat ending stocks due to a like decrease in domestic use.

For durum wheat, the USDA projected a 2-million-bu increase in ending stocks as a 3-million-bu increase in total supply was partly offset by a 1-million-bu increase in domestic use.

The USDA indicated durum imports were raised and hard red spring wheat imports were lowered based on the pace of trade to date. Food use for both classes were raised while food use of hard red winter and soft red winter wheat classes were lowered, changes the USDA said were attributed for the most part to the NASS Flour Millings Products report and Census trade data.